I cannot help but be incredibly amused when I see dozens of cars cued up at gas stations across Lebanon, hoping to fill up their tanks. It amazes me to see the reaction of the Lebanese people to such unimaginably stupid crises which affect our lives so profoundly, for no real reason. Instead of being outraged, we are mildly annoyed, in fact, the real sad thing for most of us is that this weekend is probably the last one on the ski slopes this season…

But, why is this happening, and whose fault is it really? Well, all concerned parties are irrational infants that have been engaging in penis-measuring contests for the past four weeks (even though one of them is a woman).

The steady rise in fuel saw 20 liters of 98 Octane is at a whopping 37,000 LBP and the 95 Octane at 36,300 LBP. This is almost double what it was only 10 years ago, and some 40% more expensive then when crude oil prices hit a record in 2008′s global financial crisis. This is largely due to the crippling tariffs by the government, which amount to a total of 13,000 LBP. So, the actual price is 24,000 LBP for 98 octane and 23,300 LBP (that’s with VAT on the gas price minus the tariff). What’s funny is that the government adds the tariff to the original price, THEN adds the 10% VAT, creating the absurdly inflated price of 37,000 LL, which is 154% the price it is imported at…

On one side lies Gebran Bassil, who is currently the caretaker minister for electricity and water. He is loyal to Michel Aoun and is often the problem at the heart of political stalemates and strifes involving the FPM. On the other side, is a staunchly Hairi-loyal finance minister, Rayya El Hassan, whose shady performance in the finance ministry has exposed deep-rooted and far-reaching corruption that threatens her side if the cabinet falls into the opposing team’s hands.

Now, Gebran decided he was going to win some political points before stepping down, so he decided to lower the tariffs 3,600 LBP, back when it was just 36,600 LL per 98 Octane 20 liters, bringing it down to 33,000LL. The legality and bureaucratic dick-measuring then began, with the Customs authorities and Finance Ministry saying it was too much of a loss for the country’s income, and that it was not within Bassil’s jurisdiction. Then, in a hypocritical tour-de-force, Rayya El Hassan proposed lowering tariffs 5,000 LL. She knew well enough though that her proposal needed a functional council of ministers, a majority vote and an ok by the President and the PM, something that is not likely to happen anytime soon.

Here, when things got tough and decisions needed to be taken, as usual, the President shied away and allowed this juvenile fiasco to unfold and the average person suffer.

It’s funny how everything in Lebanon happens “for-one-time-only” and in defiance of the constitution and set laws. Even the President’s election is technically invalid by law, needing a constitutional amendment that never was. But, when it comes to lowering fuel prices, or anything related to our daily lives and incomes, suddenly, everyone becomes law-abiding and unmoving towards the originally unclear jurisdictions and procedures.

Accepting Bassil’s proposal immediately, or special OKs from the President and PM are enough to lower these prices, but no one is budging. It’s sad and a truly double facepalm moment.

Now, why won’t fuel importers supply local gas stations with fuel? Well, fuel prices have surged after the unrest in Egypt, Bhrain, Yemen and now Libya. Libya is an OPEC member, and fears of unrest there have raised the price of a crude oil barrel some 25$ already, reaching its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. So, the importing company is paying more now, but the prices are still fixed at the original 24,000 LL. In other words, they’re losing money if they sell newly imported, more expensive oil at cheaper prices of oil four weeks ago.

So, with Bassil’s refusal to sign the updated prices list for 4 weeks now, there is no clear solution to this unless someone caves in. Hopefully, the prices will be lowered 3000-5000 LBP by extraordinary approval, and ideally, price of oil fixed at 25,000-30,000 per 20 liters (eh mbala), with fluctuating tariffs depending on international fuel prices. So, if oil becomes cheaper, tariff gets higher, and vice versa. This “buffer” of a tariff might quell the brewing unrest, with Bassil issuing a 24-hour ultimatum for his proposition’s approval. If not, we’re going to have a 40,000+ LBP fuel pricetag, which is some 1,200,000 LBP/month in a country where the minimum wage is 500,000 LL. So, either the minimum wage is at least tripled to 1,500,000 LL, or we start subsidizing commodities, and with rising oil and food prices, the prospects are looking very grim.

Read more in the Daily Star
Read more on iLoubnan

24 hours after this post, 5000 LBP was shaved off 20 Liters of fuel… Unclear how yet, but according to caretaker Power and Water Minister Gebran Bassil, it was through his executive order, not a “special issue” by the president and prime minister.

Personally, it looks like our dear leaders wanted their friends in the gas business to sell what was left of the fuel at the higher price, after all, we wouldn’t want 0.0001% of the Lebanese people to lose 5000 LBP =)