Avoid Valet Parking Series: Gemmayzeh Edition

February 13, 2012 By 8 Comments

After the unexpected success of the Zaitunay Bay edition, it was only natural to do the Gemmayzeh edition one. Below is a Google Map detailing the locations of parkings I frequent the most. Personally, I’d recommend you find a spot on Mar Mikhael street, but because of the bourgeoning nightlife district there recently, it’s getting tougher to find a parking spot.

My favorite spot is the Freres school’s parking, because the proceeds go to fund scholarships in the school (or at least that’s what the parking ticket says). It’s at the beginning of Gemmayzeh too, so will allow you to do the entire pub-route. There are two others on Pasteur street, parallel to Gouraud street (the main Gemmayzeh street). One is in front of the European Union’s HQ in Lebanon (5,000 LBP) and the other is near Coop D’Etat and Bulldog (5,000 LBP).

There are several smaller ones also, which are garages in the day, and parking by night. They’re tight though, and you might get your car busted there just as much as when you use a valet.

Filed Under: Leb

Avoid Valet Parking Series: Zaitunay Bay-Water Front Edition

February 10, 2012 By 5 Comments

Some people like to whine. Especially on social media. One day it’s racism, the next its valet parking attendants. Some Lebanese people are funny, and remind me of South Park episodes where everyone protests by yelling random stuff like “rabble rabble rabble!” without understanding what’s happening, doing the research, or finding the alternatives. I guess its contagious, after all, the shortsighted Arab Spring has proven its failure with the ascension of muslim extremist, versus moderate seculars.

ANYWAY, in Lebanon, the police, government and all other authorities are corrupt and inept. So, you need to learn to fend for yourself and avoid problems, because you won’t find a listening ear or a helping hand from the police. Also, valet parking isn’t a glamorous job, and its employees are usually gangsters in uniform who enjoy abusing your cars and ripping you off. But, even though this is illegal, a 50,000 LBP bribe to a police officer would be enough to make him turn a blind eye on the violations. So, learn to avoid valet parking, and here’s the first post on how to do that in ZB, where incidents with the bad valet services have been going around Facebook.

So, less whining, more doing guys. Anyone can comment on Facebook and retweet on Twitter. Be useful =P

Green is the underground parking of ZB. You can park there alone, no valet needed.

Red areas are the public parkings, where you can park for 2000-3000 LBP

Yellow is street parking, which is paid during the day and usually free at night

Filed Under: Leb

The Salary Increase Fiasco Explained

January 29, 2012 By 2 Comments

To the layperson like me, watching the news about the planned wage hikes and the resulting back-and-forth between concerned parties would make you confused and come to the conclusion that either the minister is being childish, the employers are scheming and the workers don’t know what’s best for them.

Today, I had the chance to sit with one of the 12 members of the General Labor Union council (Ittihad 3ommalli 3am), and its representative in the Lebanese Labor Court (ma7akem el 3amal) and discuss this issue in-depth with people immediately concerned with this whole matter. Here’s what I managed to get

What was the problem exactly?

In 1995, labor unions demanded reimbursement for transportation (badal el na2el) seeing how affordable public transportation was practically non-existent in Lebanon. Back then, a measly 2,000 LBP was sanctioned by the cabinet for every day you showed up at work. This means that this reimbursement wasn’t given when you missed work or off, and was not included in your retirement salary’s plan.

Minister of Labor Charble Nahhas considers this work-around as illegal, and wants to include transportation fees and scholarship fees into the bulk of the salary. This would amount to 200,000 LBP added to each salary. Which means that employers would pay 200,000 LBP + 21.5% for welfare and retirement funds. Meaning more than 242,000 LBP in extra fees (apart from a wage hike).

This is of course massive news for workers, and given Charbel Nahhas’ Communist background, his unwavering, yet illogical clinging to his stance is understandable. However, looking at things objectively makes us realize that a wage hike + the 242,000LBP would mean that businesses would have to fire people to cope, since the economy isn’t at it’s finest. That is why, some might be puzzled at this, but the workers were against including the 242,000 LBP into their salaries. A tough, but pragmatic compromise I think.

Another problem was the 200,000 LBP lumpsum increase in 2008 by PM Fouad Siniora’s government back then. Technically, it was illegal. So, a legal work-around was created to compensate for it, and here’s what it looks like:

Let’s suppose your salary is 800,000 LBP, here’s what happens with the passed cabinet bill

100% increase for the first 400,000 LBP plus a 9% increase for the second 400,000 LBP, minus the 200,000 LBP of 2008 = Your New Salary

(800K + 400K + 36K) – 200K = 1,036,000 LBP

 So, this silly example of mathematical gymnastics makes things legal and was passed by the cabinet and approved by the Shoora Council.

Why did the Shoora Council intervene?

We rarely hear of the Shoora Council intervening. That’s because its opinion is non-binding when concernend parties are in agreement. However, when concerned parties are at odds, the Shoora Council verdict becomes legally binding.

What happened to the transportation reimbursement?

It will remain at 8,000 LBP per working day you show up. What’s unfair is that it is not according to how far you live. So, while one might live within walking distance of his/her place of employment and takes the 8,000 LBP as extra revenue, someone who lives three “services” away will be paying from their salary to be able to get to work. This is another problem with the badal na2el which would be cool to solve.

Why didn’t they just subsidize fuel instead?

That was something I asked myself, and apparently the labor unions demanded this instead of the wage hike. Even though this might solve the whole problem, and include all the Lebanese instead of just the 40% on the payroll (not self-employed or part-timers, ie the ones this law affects).

The reason is a sinister one, but unfortunately true. Fuel is a lot of money, and direct money for the government. By direct, it means you pay, you get. Unlike electricity for example, which you could use up and not pay for. Everyone in Lebanon pays for fuel too, so compromising this vital lifeline for the government’s coffers is unthinkable, unfortunately for us.

Why did prices inflate 4 times and the salary just once?

Because the oligopolies that control so many products and services are unfair and mafia-like. The way to fix this is via the Ministry of Economy’s customer protection agency (7imayat al mustahlek). Unfortunately, the corruptness and under-funding of this sector makes it virtually useless. But, if you’re a business and buy in bulk, call them up and complain… Who knows, perhaps it will fall on ears that listen and act!

Also, interesting fact: the municipality and its police officers have the authority to inspect food quality and prices in their jurisdiction, and take the necessary measures which could be anything from a fine to closing down the guilty establishment and legal prosecution.

Conclusion?

This is just too messed up.

Filed Under: Leb, Thoughts

Don’t Die On Collapsing Bridges: Alternative Routes to Jal el Dib and Charles Helou Bridges

January 17, 2012 By 12 Comments

After the horrifying Ashrafieh building collapse tragedy and the laughable reactions of the government and authorities, mass hysteria about other buildings and infrastructure not fit for use and habitation have surfaced. Broadcasts, tweets and statuses warning people to avoid the infamous Jal El Dib bridge, which was built back in the 80s and was expected to be in place for 3 to 5 years, is in its third decade. A less “in-your-face” hazard is the Charles Helou bridge-parking-bus stop. Blog Baladi and Kataeb.org have already touched upon this subject, and I’ve borrowed photos and some information from them for this post, so thanks guys!

Pics of Jal el Dib (Taken Today)

I risked my life to take these photos for you guys! I also got my sweater dirty thanks to the leaks from the GAPING holes in the bridge. It’s really fascinating how it didn’t fall down yet. This has been a problem for years, and it should’ve been dismantled this month, but according to my friend Najib from Blog Baladi, political disputes have retarded the plans.

Charles Helou Bridge Held With Wooden Boards

Was closed last weekend. I was hoping they’d be paving the road… Apparently, they were keeping it up with wooden boards. Hurray! -_- (note: I was being sarcastic =P the boards hold up the concrete they added to the cracks and holes, after all, those tiny metal bars and wooden boards won’t hole the tens of thousands of cars that pass there everyday)

So, here are some roads to avoid these bridges (and traffic too). I admit, I wasn’t posting this for the past two years cause I wanted some of them all to myself. Yes, greedy I know. But, I wouldn’t want any of you guys to fall to their deaths so, here you go!

The Port Road

Take the exit on the right instead of going straight near the MTCtouch building. You will go on the road that leads to the Beirut Port entrance and eventually BIEL.

Forum-Gemayel-Armenia-Mar Mikhael

U-turn off the Forum de Beyrouth, go on the Pierre Gemayel road, then at the cross-roads near Art Lounge, go on Armenia Street which is the one that leads to Gemmayzeh eventually. This will probably be less crowded than the Port area. I use it often

Forum-Gemayel-Yerevan-Ashrafieh

Ashrafieh-Yerevan-Badawi Street (where dictateur is)-Armenia-Forum (Back from Beirut)

The small, one-way road is not very well-known, so it can be useful while avoiding monster traffic and crumbling bridges.

Antelias-Jal El Dib-Nahr El Mot Inner, Inner Road

It’s not the inner road we all know, but the one above it. Much less crowded, I use it more than the highway and main inner one.

Filed Under: Leb Tagged With: , , ,

5 Amazing Panoramic Photos of a Snowy Ehden Taken With My SII

January 15, 2012 By 2 Comments

View of Mar Sarkis Mountain and Qadisha Valley

View of Mar Sarkis Mountain and Qadisha Valley

View of my grandparents house and garden

View from the street in front of my grandparents house

View from my grandparents house

Ehden is my hometown, nestled in the Northern mountains of Lebanon. It’s 100 kilometers away from Beirut and arguably the most awesome place in the universe. Heck, it’s even called Ehden = Eden.

Filed Under: Artsy Fartsy, Leb Tagged With: , ,

Bye Bye Illegal Billboards!

January 5, 2012 By 2 Comments

In November 2011, Interior Minister Marwan Charbel announced all illegal advertising billboards in Lebanon would be dismantled. Of course, we’re in Lebanon and the year ended, with the Times-Square-like, eye-soar billboards still all over the place. BUT, looks like the process of removing them has begun, with several billboards on the northern entrance to Beirut (Jal El Dib – Dora) blacked out or painted over in preparation to be removed.

Here are a few pics I took earlier today. Congrats everyone, here’s to a little less clutter on our streets. They used to entertain us in the legendary traffic jams though… And I guess the companies who paid for their ads on the billboard won’t be too happy!


Filed Under: Fail and Win Ads, Leb Tagged With: ,

Whatever Happened to the Indoor Smoking Ban? Answers Here

January 4, 2012 By 9 Comments

On August 17, 2011 the law was voted on and passed in parliament. According to the Lebanese law,
implementation will begin immediately after it is published in the official gazette.
Implementing all the articles of the law will unfold in 3 different phase

Where Indoor Smoking is ALREADY Banned (As of September 3, 2011)

  • Governmental Buildings
  • Schools
  • Universities
  • Hospitals
  • Clinics
  • Workplaces (offices)
  • Banks
  • Malls
  • Airport
  • Public Transport

(Hospitality sector excluded for now)

First Significant Change (As of March 3, 2012)

  • Ban on advertising of all tobacco-related products (indoor/outdoor)
  • Ban of all items that resemble tobacco-related products targeted at kids (toys, food, candies, etc.)
  • Promotions ban, no free samples, discounts, competitions, offers, etc.
  • Ban of ads on audio and visual media, bot paid and unpaid
  • Sponsorship ban, in any form for any event

The Real Deal (As of September 3, 2012)

  • Indoor smoking ban extends to include hospitality sector
    • Restaurants
    • Cafe
    • Bars
    • Clubs
    • Theaters
    • Hotels (only 20% of rooms can be smoking)
  • Highly visible no smoking signs in all venues, entrances
  • 40% of tobacco packaging will be health warning label (both local or imported)
  • Ban on all products with misleading packaging (mild, light, ultra light, color-coded, etc.)

Penalties

For smokers, starts at 100,000 LBP (more info is not available, I guess it’ll be based on the minimum wage by then)
For companies/tobacco companies starts at 1,000,000LBP up to 50,000,000LBP and up to 12 months behind bars.

My Two Cents

Congrats to all non-smokers, tough luck to all smokers. This might be your chance start trying to quit before it hits you hard in September. I’m glad it will only take a little over 12 months for the law to be fully-implemented, that’s record speed for Lebanon. Question that remains, will it be properly implemented? I sure hope so, cause the fines look serious.

Source: Ministry of Public Health

Filed Under: Leb Tagged With: ,

Names and Faces of MPs Who Are NOT Against Rape + Protest on January 14

January 2, 2012 By 51 Comments

You guys (and gals) know I hate religion. Religion is cool when you’re a spineless person in need for some fake reassurance and a reason to act human. That’s cool cause it only affects you. However, religion isn’t cool when it affects other people’s lives negatively. One negative way, as I’m sure all women and any person in his/her right mind would tell you, is being raped. Rape is one of the most heinous crimes people commit, up there with murder and child molestation.

Unfortunately, in Lebanon, where “honor” crimes were outlawed only last year, rape is still legal when the parties are married, or get married after the crime. Wow, how embarrassing and stupid… Every time I hear or think of this, I think “seriously?!” and wonder if we’re going to hold public beheadings and make Sharia Law the law of the land next.

What’s worse, is that the draft law that we all thought would pass with ease in parliament, has been held up for months as religious fundamentalists try to alter the draft law, making it defunct and ceremonial (the way they think women should be in society).

The disgusting stances of muslim religious leaders in Lebanon, calling women’s protection a “travesty to harm social and religious fabric” makes my stomach turn. But, that is to be expected from old men in robes who feel empowered by bringing down women and reducing women’s roles as “answering to men, as men answer to God”.

What’s even more disgusting is that the committee overseeing this draft law, consists mostly of non-muslims and even one of the few female MPs. I’d understand why Mohamad Jisr, Ali Ammar and of course Imad el Hout would want to hijack the law. After all, they belong to the sects whose religious heads made it not ok to protect women’s rights and in a country where these men in robes decide the fate of elections, I wouldn’t blame those MPs, they’re just boot-licking cowards in search of re-election.

Now, here I’m not blaming the whole sect of course, just its leaders. After all, people have brains and many of us are educated. For example, when I say the Vatican is retarded for being against the use of condoms and other contraceptives, that doesn’t mean all Catholics are retards. I myself was raised as a Maronite in communion with the Catholic Church and so were many of my friends. It’d be a pretty safe bet that none of them are against the use of condoms and safe sex. That’s why priests can be against condoms all they want, and preach against it day and night, but the law of the land should never ban it, and it never does in most cases because that would be endangering the lives and health of those involved. But, when retarded religious opinions and prejudices are law, that’s when the men and women in suits need to step-up to the robed men and set things right.

What’s even more disgusting, is the pressure some religious leaders have put on TVs to stop airing TV spots illustrating the horror many women still face. Blackmail at its finest, I’m sure if God existed he’d be proud of you!

Nabil Nicolas, Michel El Helou, Gilberte Zouein, Ghassan Mkheiber and Shant Jejenian have no excuse though. What’s appalling is that most are in the Free Patriotic Movement, the block who calls itself the “change and reform” block and whom I put a lot of hope in in 2009. To that, I say, shame on you, and that come next elections, I and many like me will be working fiercely to make you fail miserably in the ballot boxes. After all, some estimates put the male to female ration in Lebanon as high as 1 man for every 4 or 5 women, which means that out of every 5 votes, as many as 4 are female, who I’m sure don’t believe that the Kur’an is enough to ensure their protection from abusive husbands.

Protest January 14, 2012

I personally support this rally, and will be present at it, like many other men who are organizing themselves to lobby for gender equality and safeguarding women’s rights and safety. An example is the ABAAD NGO, which has almost 4000 fans on Facebook and that’s before the launch of their website! I recommend you follow KAFA and Nasawiya as well, two NGOs in which I have many friends and who I undoubtedly support. As for the details on the January 14 protest, here’s the FB event page.

Real Men

Real men don’t beat women. Real men don’t rape their wives. Real men will win the hearts of the women in their lives through respect and adoration, not oppression and subjugation according to religious ridiculousness.  Real men should lock up small men who take advantage of Lebanese moms, sisters and daughters.

Edit: check out this hilarious tumblr blog making fun of Imad Hout’s controversial comments. (thanks serge!)

Filed Under: Leb, Thoughts

Samy Gemayel Visits AUB

December 27, 2011 By 2 Comments


I like Samy. He came to give a lecture two years ago, which I attended out of curiosity. Back at the time, I did not know who he really was other than that he is a Gemayel and a Phalangist (Kataeb) with a somewhat weird voice. After that lecture though, I discovered he was the only person in the Gemayel family who actually inherited Bashir’s charisma and eloquence.

What he hasn’t inherited though, is the level of idealism, which I find especially appealing about him. His pragmatic approach to internal politics are ballsy to say the least, but nevertheless well-researched and somewhat viable in a sea of invalid arguments and ideologies.

So, it was only natural that on his second visit, I attend his lecture, and this time jot down a few notes. Here are some of the points that I found interesting and my thoughts added at the end.

The Lebanese Political System is Broken

Samy touched upon an important fact we often overlook or dismiss as just a history class lesson. Our constitution and political system is inspired by our then-chaperones: The French. Lebanon as we know it today was drawn up and built up during the French Mandate that ended in 1943. This, he thinks and I agree, was the first mistake.

That’s because the French and Lebanese differ markedly on many levels. For one, the French all share the same identity, values, history and “pride” in their nation. The Lebanese are a mixture of persecuted minorities who came to Lebanon to seek refuge at different times in history and under very different circumstances. That’s why, the histories, loyalties, customs, norms, beliefs and even languages of the inhabitants of Lebanon are not the same. Thus, creating a France-style central government was a time-bomb waiting to explode, and it has, at least once already.

One government for 18 different peoples means one of them will control that government and the rest will either be second-class citizens, or do everything to seize that power. It’s a well-known fact the Christians, especially the Maronites, held much of the strings pre-1975. This prepared the stage for the infamous Lebanese Civil War that saw the Christian role diminish and virtually vanish, with ceremonial positions in governments and unfair representation in elected offices.

It’s indisputable that post-1990 period, the Sunnis rose to power with the blessing and backing of the Syrian Occupation. Here, Christians were virtually obliterated from all forms of government with their de-facto leaders in exile, in prison or in coffins. When things got sour and Syria left, that combined with the July 2006 War and the May 7 clashes and eventually the toppling of Sunni Saad El Hariri’s national unity government put the Shiite Hezbollah on top.

The point is, our political system is broken and we are all in a constant struggle to sieze power of the central government. This is the root of many of our problems, such as our dependence (and in some cases complete obedience) on international and regional powers .

Solution 1: A Fully Secular State is Impossible at the Moment

To this, Samy said it would be his ideal choice, but went on to say that at the moment it was unthinkable. His views are similar to mine, and talking of a secular political system is stupid when everything else, including laws, education and overall mentalities are still so heavily reliant on old men in robes. Samy said that for a real secular state, we need to abolish religious schools and political parties. This makes complete sense and we agree on this. I sought a more far-fetched solution though, read about it here.

Solution 2: A De-Centralized Government

This sounds like a dolled-up version of the taboo Kataeb catchphrase of “Federalism.” I for one, believe this is the ideal solution. Let the ideologues bicker over petty things like Arabism and Western Influence as long as they want, but let things which actually matter to me, like water, electricity , asphalt and telecom get done. I couldn’t care less about martyrdom and other big titles which mean nothing. I care about my bills, traffic and being able to live a decent life which I can enjoy.

My stances are of course more extreme than Samy’s because I’m not running for the elections in 2013. Anyway, what Samy was focusing on is that the government is too far away from its people and that the only way you can get anything done is through “wasta” which means “knowing someone/bribing someone” to get what is actually your right. With a local government, you can easily get to them without needing to kiss a thousand asses and lick a hundred boots. Why? Because if they screw up, you’ll screw them over in the ballot four years later.

What actually happens now is we get screwed over, but come election season, the incompetent and corrupt politicians hand out special services or bribes to voters, which get amnesia and go vote for them again like sheep. A de-centralized government is the solution to that dilemma, and that is the solution Samy has subscribed to as a pragmatic, but conservative politician.

My Two Cents

Samy failed at one integral thing: the mechanism. It would be fine and dandy to create a de-centralized government. But, how? The people that benefit from the current system are the people with the authority and power to change the system. So why would they change it? By revolting you say? The problem is we don’t have a Muammar or a Hosny, we have a Hariri, Nasrallah, Junblatt, Geagea, Gemayel, Aoun, etc. and “toppling” one will inevitably lead to a clash with one of the Lebanese factions.

If I were Samy, I’d keep at it. I’m proud to have MPs which actually do their work, lobby for it and believe in it pragmatically. If Samy had his own party, I’d consider joining it. I guess lots of other people feel the same way I do. The Kataeb party and the Gemayel family have too much baggage with them, and not everyone is prepared to subscribe to that. One example is my dislike of his father, Amine, who is a failed statesman in my opinion, and yet remains in the top post in the phalange party based on primitive hereditary political transitions.

Notable Moments

Samy admitted his party might’ve done mistakes in the past. Including a few mistakes and misjudgments that might’ve help lead to the 1975 war.

Another was Samy’s witty and frank response to Hezbollah supporters. He admitted he knew “what he was getting into” when he came to AUB jokingly admitting he was expecting students like Hezbollah supporters to confront him. One question raised by an HA supporter was why would they give up their arms and fate to a corrupt government, to which Samy promptly responded, why would everyone else submit to the will of the Resistance? Which I completely agree with. No one side should be able decide the fate of a nation, no matter how “noble” and “divine” they might be.

Samy’s suggestion that the Resistance become a part of the Lebanese Armed Forces versus being dismantled, is a tricky one, but more feasible. Maybe the politicians won’t go into the details of the standard operating procedures of HA, but at least the decision of war and peace can be a national decisions, not a unilateral one.

Another question was “what was the army doing to stop the aerial incursions of the Israeli Defense Forces?” Samy answered blazingly fast “what was HA doing?” to which the HA supporter said “if we do something, you’re unhappy, if we don’t you’re unhappy” to which Samy’s replied the diplomatic, but farfetched suggestion of “strengthening the Lebanese Army”

A good point was also “constructive neutrality” which Samy believes Mikati and Sleiman are exercising at the moment when it comes to the Syrian situation. Lebanon’s abstaining in the UNSCR sanctions vote and its refusal to send observers with the Arab League, were indeed the smart option because it is an issue the Lebanese are split about. This way, no one is considered oppressed or controlled. On matters of agreement though, like Israle being the enemy, there would not be neutrality though Samy said, which means Lebanon is “constructively neutral” in that when it needs to and everyone is ok with it, we take a decision. When we’re not, we abstain. Problem solved. Hello Switzerland of the Middle-East.

I can go on and on, but this post is already over 1500 words and I’m sure the comments will be just as wordy!

My Last Comments

Please Mr Samy, open up your own party and begin rallying support from youth such as myself. We’re gonna be voting next time around!

Everyone else, it’s time we start facing facts… There’s something wrong, and we need a solution which is radical, but rational, even if it means betraying some “taboos” and giving up on your personal ideologies. Things change with time and circumstances, that’s natural selection’s law. Not changing in a changing world means failure. 2013, here we come (unless the world ends in 2012)

Filed Under: AUB Affairs, Leb

MAD Beirut’s Video: Nailed It!

December 22, 2011 By Leave a Comment

After you’ve read my opening review of MAD, watch this video. This is the second video the guys make, after last year’s White Beirut video, which absolutely nails what life and love is like in Beirut! This one might be a bit more. Definitely an ad WIN!

Here’s the White video too

Filed Under: Fail and Win Ads, Leb Tagged With: ,

What I Would Do Next If I Were Bashar

December 21, 2011 By 14 Comments

On March 15, 2011, protestors in Syria galvanized by the Arab Spring (or rather autumn) began protesting in Daraa. Soon enough, contagion spread to other cities and districts. Soon enough as well, protestors started to die.

Syria is off-limits to media and a regime known for its corruption and repression cannot be trusted with dissemination of information. Several blunders (or are they?) of alleged videos of events in Syria turned out to be false, or of incidents from Lebanon’s May 7 clashes and the Nahr El Bared battle. What’s funny is that both the Syrian government and the opposition utilize videos taken in Lebanon to justify their stances (we should be proud!)

On December 13, the UN put the death toll in Syria at 5000 since the unrest began, which averages to about 18 deaths every single day for 9 months. 18 human beings getting killed every single day. The figures might not be accurate, but nevertheless, even one person’s life should be considered invaluable, regardless if it’s a protestor, army soldier or army defector.

What’s happening in Syria has been very tough to crack. On the one hand, innocent civilians are being killed and the government’s claims of international conspiracies are a bit too exaggerated. On the other, dozens if not hundreds of soldiers have been killed. So, it’s not exactly a peaceful uprising. It might not be the Syrian opposition, but some groups in Syria have definitely taken up arms against the government which forces one to think that if the regime magically disappears, who would replace it?

This might be a controversial statement, one bravely voiced by the Maronite Patriarch in September. Now, activists will jump in to declare that this is outrageous and what’s important is Bashar leaves. To that, I respond, look at Egypt. Drunken with revolution and blinded by a blend of enthusiasm and rage, people never considered what would come next. As you all know, the Egyptian Army’s thugs have proven as bad if not worse than Mubarak’s. Add to that 69% of the votes went to Islamic movements, and what you get is definitely not the free, secular, democratic Egypt we dreamt of. It’s an Egypt run by strongmen, remnants of the old regime and soon enough conservative Islamists i.e. not the ideal form of democracy.

Anyway, that’s not the purpose of this post. However, I have been silent about Syria for the past 9 months and felt it was time to voice some of my concerns. I am fortunate enough to have many friends in the diplomatic and political affairs world. They’re mostly Lebanese studying or working abroad, which is exactly how I like my analyses. Why? Because they’re immune to the often emotion-driven opinions in the Arab World and are somewhat more academic in their outlook on things. The distance separation helps of course, after all, it’s tough to consider international politics at play when you’re being beaten in the streets.

After lengthy conversations with a peace studies grad student, a senior bonds analyst and a junior development analyst, here are the three scenarios projected for Syria.

1- Bashar El Assad gets Assassinated

This is a highly unlikely scenario. His inner circle is a tightly knit one composed of family members and close friends and beneficiaries of the regime. Plus, whoever might want to kill Bashar has probably already been killed or is in exile. Also, if someone close to him wanted to assassinate him, they’d have done it already.

2- A Prolonged Tit-for-Tat Struggle

A more likely scenario is the current situation being prolonged for many more months. In the wake of the US withdrawal from Iraq, unflinching support for Bashar from China and Russia and upcoming elections in several of the world’s major democracies, the international community has been somewhat timid in standing up to help the Syrian people.

The Arab League, an already defunct and joke of a league is allowing the regime to buy as much time as it pleases. Turkey, who has been vociferous in supporting the oppressed Sunni majority in Syria against the regime, might back down after the regime’s Kurdish proxies began causing trouble in South-Eastern Turkey.

In other words, the reluctance of the international community to step up to its responsibilities, will allow the current situation to persist and the bloodshed to go on for as long as the regime can survive, which is a lot considering its borders are porous and allow it access to aid and trade from Lebanon and Iran via Iraq.

3- Attack Israel via Lebanese Proxies

Remember the July 2006 war? Hezbollah’s brazen attack and kidnapping of Israeli Defense Forces soldiers led to a 33-day war which left Lebanon’s infrastructure in ruins and thousands of innocent civilians dead. It’s safe to say many Lebanese people were against Hezbollah even before the devastating 2006 war. However, when Israel was pounding Lebanon, most of the haters put aside their concerns and joined in the war effort. Perhaps not in combat, but in terms of humanitarian and moral support, the opposition to Hezbollah died down during the war and in the immediate aftermath.

So, if I were a cornered dictator with an impressive arsenal and even more impressive regional proxies, I would probably do this: provoke a war with Israel, but indirectly. This would automatically put the opposition in a tight spot. As Arabs, it is of course taboo not to hate Israel and that stands true in Syria. In Lebanon, many of us, myself included, would rather keep to ourselves and not fight Israel, but others of course believe it is the sole reason they exist. So, if Hezbollah initiates, or is blamed for initiating, a substantial attack against Israel via perhaps the Golan or disputed regions like the allegedly Lebano-Syirio-Israeli Shebaa Farms, the IDF will undoubtedly retaliate in force.

Here, Bashar might intervene militarily by firing a few missiles, or logistically by immensely aiding Hezbollah and perhaps welcoming the scores of Lebanese refugees. Here, you’d be demonized for standing against such a “noble” man helping the Arabs against Israel. And of course, when a nation is at war, opposition disappears and resistance and unification usually emerges.

This seems to be the most likely scenario, with the recent incidents and attacks in Southern Lebanon targeting the UNIFIL and firing missiles at Israeli territories. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah’s recent change of tone also hints at that. The formerly docile, magnanimous speeches have quickly become threatening, brazen and overly defensive. Cornered by the concerns of their arms being used on fellow Lebanese after the May 7th incident, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon‘s indictment accusing Hezbollah of assassinating ex-PM Rafik Hariri in 2005, and most recently allegations of links to drug cartels in South America and money laundering via the Lebanese Canadian Bank, Hezbollah too might be tempted to engage Israel and remind its supporters and the Lebanese why they need their arms. Although, if they do engage in a war, I am certain the people who sympathized in 2006, will not be as accommodating this time around. I am one of them, I refuse to go through another devastating war for no real gain other than empty slogans and bloated proclamations of “divine victory” and massive losses in reality when it comes to human life, infrastructure and the overall economy. If Israel failed in its mission, that does not mean we won.

Conclusion

These are uncertain and unhappy times for the region. Promises of a brighter tomorrow are clouded with an uncertain today. A regime as dangerous as Syria’s, when cornered, might do the unthinkable. In this post, I tried to put myself in Bashar’s shoes… A man that so willingly slaughters his people (regardless of any other armed conflict going on with terrorist groups) and denies responsibility on live TV will not feel bad about sacrificing the safety and stability of his country’s tiny neighbor if it means shoring up his grasp on power.

Filed Under: Leb, Thoughts Tagged With: , , ,

The NYE2012 Series: 4 Parties I’d Wanna Be At (2 of Which Are Below 80USD)

December 17, 2011 By 2 Comments

DUPLEX. Just Another NYE Party
50USD
71995275

We Run Beirut are “keeping it real” and celebrating NYE like any other night. It’s ultra-cheap, for just 50USD. Compared to other places, this is like ten times cheaper. It’s a duplex just off Sassine square with a large garden and lounge.

The music will be the usual beautiful house music, with promises of some dubstep and with the BCE on board, some nudisco too.

I’d highly recommend this party if you’re a regular We Run Beirut fan. I expect the crowd to all know each other and the overall atmosphere to be more house party-like than massively glamorous and exclusive party.   So, make sure this is what you want an like and if it is, then that’s where you’re supposed to be on December 31st.

In all honesty, this is the place I want to be at when we’re counting down to midnight ad celebrating the first few hours of 2012.

PC Party NYE
69-80USD

Lots of rumors have been going around about PC’s NYE edition being something big and weird and special. Well, it looks like it’s going to be a Circus, literally. The circus tent across the highway from Forum de Beyrouth will house the NYE edition of the PC parties.

The guys are going massive with 8 local DJs, and international DJ and two separate dance floors for the night. There’s also gonna be a live circus act as the party goes on, with acrobats, clowns and magicians animating the night. No animals will be present though, which I think is awesome… I would hate to see them stay up all night and potentially be harassed by someone drunk…

Presale tickets are for 69USD open bar, and tickets at the door are for 80USD per person open bar.

If you’re a die-hard PC partier, this IS the NYE celebration for you. Affordable compared to most other parties, and weird enough to keep things as interesting as ever.

The Party that Killed New Year’s Party
150USD (100USD after 12:30)
70186555

It’s in Alcazar, a venue I love. Compared to other places and parties, it’s a reasonably fair price and the lineup is an impressive one and includes my dear friends Ronin and Nesta.

The 150USD formula includes a set menu and the poster is just fabulous. Here’s an event to consider if you wanna stay in Beirut and be in Gemmayzeh. In fact, I’d say it’s my favorite NYE event on Gemmayzeh Street.

Remember, Alcazar is a fancy-ish venue and their food is good. So, if you’re NYE celebrations include gourmet meals and you have a few hundred dollars saved up for NYE, then this is definitely a party to seriously consider.

MixFM and B018 Ultimate NYE Party
175-250USD
03810618

This is indeed a special event. The creators of both MixFM (DJ Rodge) and B018 (Naji Gebran) will be taking to the decks. Rodge might regularly spin his sets, but Naji Gebran certainly does not, which has made me quite curious about what he’ll play.

Next in line comes Fady Ferraye, a personal favorite of mine as well as my dear friends Gunther and Stamina, making the music for the night truly diverse and tasteful. It will be open premium bar with finger food available for everyone. Bar at 175USD per person and tables at 250USD per person.

This would qualify as one of my favorite options and one I’d like to spend NYE at (Fady Ferraye and G&S are what did it for me). It might be out of most of our budgets though and a bit more commercial than the other three options above. So, if you’re not a die-hard fan of electronic sexiness and don’t mind being bothered with old songs 80s night style before midnight, and have enough money left aside, B018 is not a bad option at all.

Filed Under: Endorsements, Leb Tagged With: ,
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