The hype that’s been plastered on our billboards the past few weeks is the kind we never expected to see in Lebanon. A powerful army, electricity, high-speed railroads, universal healthcare and education, etc.

I think it’s cute the ministry has done that, despite the fact the bidding for the rights to drill and extract our oil and gas hasn’t even begun and no hole will be drilled before 2015 or 2016. I also think it’s a good turnover for the money from the public sector (the ministry) to the private one (whichever ad agency made these). However, I’m not particularly happy about that, nor as optimistic and here’s why:

1- Corruption

We are number 134 out of 184. We’re in the top 50 most corrupt places on Earth (I think we should be placed higher, but still). Everyone is corrupt in Lebanon and the Lebanese government. From the lowly traffic police officer who is more than happy to take your bribe versus give you a ticket, to the billionaire prime minister who sends his private car to free a terrorist to grant special favors and get a ballot box boost.

Now, you’ll say, “oh come on Gino, there are some good people in the government” and I completely agree. Let us give an example still fresh in our minds: Ziad Baroud. He was an outstanding and upstanding minister of interior affairs who was famous for stopping the special favors and services the ministry was coveted for, like special license plate numbers and tinted window permits (apart of course from expecting the minister to let bad guys off the leash). What happened to Baroud? He was humiliated by his politically-aligned subordinate on multiple occasions, and eventually, submitted his resignation.

You might say, “they wouldn’t do that with the oil and gas, come on!” And to that I say, look at the formation of the Petroleum Administration, which was stalled so that all the corrupt godfathers of Lebanon could plant in their henchmen on the 6-member administration. So, the sneak-peek we’re getting of how the Lebanese oil and gas industry is going to be run, is indeed a bleak one.

The money won’t go to fast trains, it’ll go to fast, armored vehicles for our politicians. No one will get free healthcare, the government will just screw over private hospitals by not paying the social security bills, or doing so months later and not with the full amount. Our army won’t get armed, but the private militias all the factions in Lebanon are breeding will definitely get shiny new toys to terrorize us with.

2- Israel

We’re technically at war and part of the maritime border is disputed with them. That’s mainly our fault, for having inept and crippled governments that pushed Cyprus to demarcate a border with Israel different from the one demarcated with us, leading to the overlap in a small portion of the sea south of Lebanon. How happy would Israel be if we drilled there? Or rather, don’t you think they’d have their rigs up and ready by the time the political red tape and proverbial cheese is split amongst the octogenarian gang and their lackeys in power here in Lebanon?

If, by some divine power, we do drill there before the Israelis, what would stop them from sending in a couple of smart bombs and demolishing it? Do you think they’re worried about the environment? The only thing that might stop them is if the company that Lebanon awards the rights to, is a giant European or US oil company, such as Chevron or ExxonMobil or Total. That, is the silver lining for me. Having that, will make Israel less likely to engage in war, and if everyone is making money, we might finally have peace and put ideology aside.

Plus, I don’t think they’ll be too excited about arming our army with post-Vietnam War weaponry…

3- Environmental Impact

Now, I don’t wanna be the one that rains on people’s parades, but come on. Why the hell would we set all our hopes and dreams on a costly, dirty and finite source of energy, when we can start generating clean, sustainable energy now? The bids for wind and solar farms in Akkar and the Bekaa are in the dozens and can easily satiate the electricity needs of tens of thousands of households in Lebanon within months, yet, the ministry is stubborn in its stance that no investment in renewables until the full electricity demand is met… A true tour-de-force in the fuck-logic domain.

4- Energy Ministry Track Record

Even though they have some of the finest (and most expensive) ads ever, their track record is bleak. 2-3 billion USD of loss every year, and no one ever has electricity. The genius idea of renting out super-expensive Turkish ships that profusely pollute highly populated areas, instead of actually building a new power plant that would cost just as much, but last 30 years versus the ships’ 5 years. That’s assuming the ministry’s stance on renewable energy doesn’t change of course.

Billions of dollars and almost 2 years later, the electricity situation is worse and not better. And despite the minister’s racist and misinformed hurling of the blame at Syrian refugees, his ministry’s failure is evident, and if they can’t even fix the electricity situation in a country of 4 million, two and a half decades and hundreds of billions dollars later, then how can we expect them to successfully manage the oil industry? Oil revenues?

Also, assuming we start pumping oil tomorrow, what will we put the oil and gas into? We don’t have power plants to fuel, and our cars don’t fit in our poorly maintained infrastructure.

5- Uncertainty

All of this is speculation. Maybe the 3D surveys of the areas in the sea were inaccurate. Maybe when we do drill, it turns out we have much less than expected and it would cost more to extract them than the revenues it would generate by exporting them? What if we drill the wrong place, and it would take another half-a-decade to drill again? What if oil prices by then are dirt-cheap? So many what-ifs since no real discovery has really been made in Lebanon yet.

Put on top of that the uncertainty of Lebanon’s political and security situation, and you get hesitant oil companies that won’t take the risk without putting down their own terms for signing a contract.

6- Exporting

Since the government, for now, is in the hands of the pro-Iran pro-Syria (and hence pro-Russia and pro-China) camp, they might award the contracts to a company from those countries, making us vulnerable to sanctions that the US , EU ad UNSC slap on countries that support states like Iran. After all, it’s much less likely the US will impose sanctions that would hurt Chevron or ExxonMobil, and I doubt France will care much about putting pressure on Iran via Lebanon if it means hurting Total’s revenue forecasts.

If not, we’ll get stuck with oil we can’t sell, or sell to a limited, often cash-strapped market (sorta like what Venezuela was doing, and how Chavez squandered his people’s wealth).

Conclusion

All in all, I’m not too excited. I’m worried. I don’t want my country’s cash cows in the hands of its lawmakers and politicians. The only “positive” prospects is that the oil can help reduce our reliance on foreign oil, maybe get electricity and roads (the bare minimum we should have even without oil and gas wealth). Another, less obvious but potentially lucrative opportunity is the rebuilding process of Syria. It’s almost certain the regime will fall, and if it doesn’t, at some point, the war in Syria will stop and someone will have to rebuild the demolished cities and infrastructure. Many Lebanese are already poised to take that opportunity, with enough Lebanese human talent to manage and oversee rebuilding projects, and enough contractors and cement (and maybe by then, oil and gas) that would present quite a relief for Lebanon’s economy despite the fact it will come after the severe woe and hardship of the Syrian people.

What do you think?